GOP Opportunties & Threats (2010 and Beyond)

The results of the November 2, 2010 election are likely to turn out well for the Republican Party and their candidates in states and districts all over the country. Most predictions have the GOP winning back the House and making things close (if not win a slight majority) in the Senate. Gubernatorial elections around the country are heavily leaning Republican, which will likely result in down ticket victories for state legislative races as well.

If the predictions are largely correct and Republicans win big in November, Republican strategists and conservative commentators will declare the Obama agenda dead in its tracks. In some regard these proclamation will be correct. It would have been hard for most people to imagine in, January of 2009, that this widely hyped new President would approval numbers around 45% and disapproval numbers near or exceeding 50%, according to most public opinion polls (in only 20 months). The overwhelming passage of a referendum rejecting national healthcare legislation (71% of voters said “Yes” to reject the federal mandate) by voters in the battleground state of Missouri, suggest the vast majority of the public rejects at least one of the key pillars of the Obama agenda (at least in part).

Frustrations over a stagnant economy, high unemployment and excessive government spending have provoked many Americans to question the policies of the Obama Administration and the Democratic Congress. While Americans may question the polices and vote for a different approach in these mid-term elections, it would be presumptuous to say the American people have made any real philosophical conversion or experienced some great awakening. Like 2006 was for Republicans, 2010 is likely to be for Democrats; a voter revolt against the party in power.

An Indecisive Electorate
While the Tea Party movement is without a doubt philosophically driven toward the principles of limited government, the growing amount of “independent” voters includes a variety of non-ideological, disenfranchised and distrustful voters. The America electorate has caught a strong “throw the bums out” anti-politician fervor, however, the sediment seems to apply mostly to the party in power—at least in the last few election cycles. While 2006 & 2008 were certainly anti-Republican years, 2010 & 2012 could likely be anti-Democratic years (although 2012 is too far off for a prediction).

If 2010 does turn out to be a big Republican year, the greatest challenge the GOP will face is to convince a wavering electorate that a Republican agenda can address the issues plaguing the country in a meaningful way. GOP House leadership began outlining their policy agenda in “A Pledge to America,” as an alternative to the Obama-Pelosi agenda. A new majority offers Republicans new opportunity to present their principles and ideas to the American public, but also poses a number of threats to the GOP and the conservative movement at large.

In many ways, the argument has already begun. The Republican establishment and conservative (tea party) activists have different ideas about what a new Republican majority should be focused around. One key element all factions seem to agree on is repealing national healthcare. If a new GOP majority can effectively repeal (at least in part) Obamacare and adopt reforms to really lower costs, expand coverage and expand consumer choice in healthcare; they may be viewed as a short-term success. From there, arguments are likely to ensue about the direction of a policy agenda. Any serious argument about reducing government spending & addressing the deficit is likely to result in a riff between conservatives and the party’s “establishment.”

A New GOP Agenda
Conservatives may view a new majority as an opportunity to apply limited government principles and, as a result, convince the American public those principles work when applied. This approach may result in proposing serious budget cuts like downsizing (even eliminating) entire agencies or departments of the federal government and seriously reforming major entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare; which continue to take over more and more of the federal budget. Conservatives may also push a new GOP majority to pursue fundamental tax reform, rather than tinker with rates and specific areas of the tax code. In other words, conservatives may push Republicans toward a bolder agenda than the party establishment would prefer.

Republican consultants and party establishment figures would likely push the new majority in a more moderate direction, claiming large cuts to government would assure the loss of the majority. They would claim that the GOP will lose the “center” of the electorate and risk putting itself in permanent minority status. The claim would be that Barack Obama lost the “independents” by pushing too far left and that Republicans would do the same push too far right. So then, what is to make of the direction of a new GOP majority?

One thing that political pundits and consultants often tend to lose sight of is the seriousness of political issues. Too often, party bosses and strategists are focused on how they can persuade the “undecided” voters to swing their way rather than how their party leaders can pursue an agenda that addresses the public’s concerns and begins to fix some of the critical short term and long term problems we face. The unfunded mandates imposed by stimulus spending and entitlement obligations threaten to bankrupt our state and local governments. Borrowing and printing money to fill those budget gaps threaten the value of our currency and the credibility of the US dollar worldwide. Continued and growing obligations to public employee compensation and benefit costs in conjunction with expanding entitlement programs (like Obamacare) may provoke politicians to raise taxes; which will result in a more discouraging environment for businesses small and large—resulting in more layoffs and higher unemployment. The consequences of stagnant private sector growth and ever expanding government pose serious threats to our liberty and prosperity.

Maintaining the New Majority
Assuming the predictions are correct and Republicans surge in November, a new majority must be both bold in its vision, but also willing to accept incremental accomplishments. Conservatives cannot expect the type of sweeping reforms they may desire to be accomplished overnight; similarly the party establishment and GOP consultants must understand that this is about more than winning a majority. Conservative, limited government principles must be at the forefront of a Republican agenda in the months and years to come. Undecided voters tend to be non-ideological and seeking to be persuaded The goal for the consultants should be to bring the independents into the GOP fold based on principles and ideas; not to pander to them—and hope it sticks.

President Obama ran for President in 2008 promising a moderate, post-partisan approach to governing (even if his background was inconsistent with that message). The President and his ideological equivalents in Congress put forward a clear agenda for America that is centered around an ever-growing, all-knowing government. Targeted government spending as a formula for economic growth, more control over state and local governments, more regulation over the private sector, more spending on social programs and a foreign policy that forgoes more sovereignty to international institutions has been their mantra. Republicans can rally a coalition of conservatives and independents to rally around an alternative agenda to restore the Constitutional constraints of our government and a focus on jump starting the private sector. This coalition has the opportunity to be maintained well beyond the 2010 election if it can assert the right amount of boldness and balance.